globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3354/cr01514
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047952336
论文题名:
Recent aridity trends and future projections in the nemunas river basin
作者: Stonevi; Rimkus E.; Kažys J.; Bukantis A.; Kriau; Akstinas V.; Jakimavi; Povilaitis A.; Ložys L.; Kesminas V.; Virbickas T.; Pliūraite V.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2018
卷: 75, 期:2
起始页码: 143
结束页码: 154
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AI ; Aridity index ; Climate change ; EURO-CORDEX ; Nemunas basin ; Precipitation ; Reference evapotranspiration
Scopus关键词: air temperature ; aridity ; climate conditions ; climate prediction ; evapotranspiration ; future prospect ; historical record ; index method ; precipitation (climatology) ; river basin ; trend analysis ; Atlantic Ocean ; Baltic Sea ; Nemunas Basin
英文摘要: Changes in the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and precipitation (P) patterns in the Nemunas River basin (Baltic Sea catchment) are evident today and will be even more significant in the future. Nemunas basin aridity dynamics (1901−2010) and projections (2081−2100) were evaluated using the UNEP aridity index (AI). Historical analysis (CRU TS3.24.01) and future projections (EURO-CORDEX) of monthly air temperature and precipitation were used for the AI estimation. Projections of the meteorological parameters according to 4 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) were used in the analysis. In the Nemunas River basin, evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation from April to August, and in a large part of the basin the climatic conditions during this part of the year could be described as dry subhumid (AI < 0.65). Since the 1980s, increased aridity has been observed between April and August due to a strong positive trend of ET0 and a strong negative trend of P. Future projections (2081−2100) show that despite large uncertainties in the climate projections, it is more likely that the Nemunas basin climate will become more humid in April and May and drier between June and August. The increase in climate aridity during these months is more likely in the southern and central parts of the basin. © Inter-Research 2018.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116272
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