DOI: 10.3354/cr01520
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047785356
论文题名: Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments
作者: Ruane A.C. ; Antle J. ; Elliott J. ; Folberth C. ; Hoogenboom G. ; Mason-D'Croz D. ; Müller C. ; Porter C. ; Phillips M.M. ; Raymundo R.M. ; Sands R. ; Valdivia R.O. ; White J.W. ; Wiebe K. ; Rosenzweig C.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2018
卷: 76, 期: 1 起始页码: 17
结束页码: 39
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agricultural system
; Climate change
; Climate impact
; Climate stabilization
; CO 2
; Crop model
; Food prices
; Mitigation
Scopus关键词: agricultural modeling
; agricultural production
; agrometeorology
; bioenergy
; biophysics
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate signal
; farming system
; global warming
; incentive
; land use
; maize
; regional climate
; Glycine max
; Oryza sativa
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize Zea mays experiencing the largest losses, while soy Glycine max mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat Triticum aestivum, while soy prices and area decline (results for rice Oryza sativa aremixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion ismore disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the +2.0°C scenario which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the +1.5°C scenario. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO 2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO 2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural area. © The authors 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116276
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Ruane A.C.,Antle J.,Elliott J.,et al. Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments[J]. Climate Research,2018-01-01,76(1)