DOI: 10.3354/cr01446
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020416542
论文题名: Projection of future hot weather events and potential population exposure to this in South Korea
作者: Shim C. ; Seo J. ; Han J. ; Ha J. ; Ro T.H. ; Hwang Y.S. ; Oh J.J.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2017
卷: 72, 期: 1 起始页码: 29
结束页码: 38
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate vulnerability
; Hot weather
; Korea
; Population exposure
; RCP scenarios
; Representative Concentration Pathways
Scopus关键词: air exposure
; climate change
; downscaling
; elderly population
; extreme event
; future prospect
; heat wave
; nature-society relations
; regional climate
; scenario analysis
; twenty first century
; vulnerability
; weather forecasting
; South Korea
英文摘要: Heat waves, often caused by consecutive severe hot weather events, are responsible for the majority of medical costs associated with climate change in South Korea. In this study, we obtained a regional climate change scenario (RCP4.5) for South Korea, with 7.5 x 7.5 km horizontal resolution and extending up to 2100, by dynamically downscaling from results of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We analyzed hot weather events (daily maximum temperature >33°C) in summer (June-August), focusing on changes in extent and frequency. According to our analysis, the area exposed to hot weather events in August will expand to cover ∼70% of the nation in the middle of this century, with a rate of increase of 0.24% yr-1. We calculated the population exposed to hot weather events in Korea, considering both spatial coverage and number of event days. Population exposure was projected to increase almost 3-fold, from 26% of the national population during the 2010s to 72% during the 2090s. In particular, exposure of the elderly population (>65 yr old), who are particularly vulnerable, was expected to rapidly increase, with ∼22% of the national population (∼10.4 million people aged >65 yr) affected in the middle of this century when we considered the future projection of rapid aging of the South Korean population structure. Our projection of extensive hot weather events starting from the middle of the 21st century suggests the need for urgent government long-term measures and enforcement to ensure an early response to extreme weather events in Korea. © The authors 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116337
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Shim C.,Seo J.,Han J.,et al. Projection of future hot weather events and potential population exposure to this in South Korea[J]. Climate Research,2017-01-01,72(1)