DOI: 10.3354/cr01424
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018200212
论文题名: Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models
作者: Štěpánek P. ; Zahradníček P. ; Farda A. ; Skalák P. ; Trnka M. ; Meitner J. ; Rajdl K.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 70, 期: 2019-02-03 起始页码: 179
结束页码: 193
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Czech Republic
; Drought indices
; Euro-CORDEX simulations
; Model bias correction
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; drought
; experimental study
; extreme event
; precipitation assessment
; regional climate
; scenario analysis
; severe weather
; twentieth century
; twenty first century
; Czech Republic
英文摘要: The end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century in the Czech Republic were characterized by frequent extreme water cycle fluctuations, i.e. the occurrence of increased incidences of flood and drought events. Drought occurs irregularly in the Czech Republic during periods with low precipitation amounts. The most noteworthy droughts with significant impact, especially to agriculture, occurred in the years 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2015. A significant increase in frequency and length of drought periods was detected in future climate projections based on the latest model outputs, such as from the Euro-CORDEX 0.11° resolutions for the European area. For these model experiments, the following greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were used: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (milder scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario). Since the climate models suffer from potentially severe biases, it is necessary to statistically correct their outputs. For this purpose, a suitable reference dataset was prepared, based on quality-controlled, homogenized and gap-filled station time series. The correction method applied was based on variable correction using individual percentiles. From the corrected model outputs, selected extreme indexes with respect to drought analysis were calculated. From the results, it follows that we can expect both an increase in air temperature and in precipitation (with increased amounts per event), as well as an increase in other extremes with the capability of inducing drought (number of tropical days, heat waves, etc.). © The authors 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116349
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Štěpánek P.,Zahradníček P.,Farda A.,et al. Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,70(2019-02-03)