DOI: 10.3354/cr01403
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984698645
论文题名: The NARCliM project: Model agreement and significance of climate projections
作者: Olson R. ; Evans J.P. ; Di Luca A. ; Argüeso D.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 69, 期: 3 起始页码: 209
结束页码: 227
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamical downscaling
; NARCliM
; Regional climate modelling
; Southeast Australia
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; global climate
; precipitation (climatology)
; project design
; regional climate
; weather forecasting
; Australia
; Australian Capital Territory
; New South Wales
英文摘要: NARCliM (New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling project) is a climate downscaling project for Australia and the surrounding regions. Present and future climate simulations are performed using a 1-way nested dynamical downscaling approach and span 2 domains. We focus on the inner 10 km domain that extends across south-east Australia. Three regional climate models (RCMs) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting System (WRF) version 3.3 dynamically downscale 4 global climate model (GCM) simulations to finer resolutions. This project complements and improves on already available GCM projections for the region. Our simulations cover 3 epochs: present (1990-2009), near future (2020-2039), and far future (2060-2079). Here, we focus on the mean surface air temperature and precipitation. The RCMs are better able to capture spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation and improve the temperature root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the GCMs, at least for the inner domain. The RCMs tend to be biased cold compared to observations and are wetter than the GCMs during warm seasons. The downscaled RCM projections exhibit a weaker warming over land compared to the GCMs. The RCMs project no significant precipitation changes in the far future over most areas. However, Victoria is expected to see significant springtime drying of 15 mm mo-1, which is considerably higher than previous GCM results. This drying is associated with a larger strengthening of the subtropical ridge than modelled previously by the GCMs. In addition, the RCMs project significant precipitation changes in contradicting directions for some inland areas during winter. © Inter-Research 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116384
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Olson R.,Evans J.P.,Di Luca A.,et al. The NARCliM project: Model agreement and significance of climate projections[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,69(3)