| DOI: | 10.3354/cr01324
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84966559237
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| 论文题名: | Regional climate change scenarios in the Brazilian Pantanal watershed |
| 作者: | Marengo J.A.; Alves L.M.; Torres R.R.
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| 刊名: | Climate Research
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| ISSN: | 0936577X
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 68, 期:2019-02-03 | | 起始页码: | 201
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| 结束页码: | 213
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Hydrology
; Pantanal
; Rainfall
; River levels
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| Scopus关键词: | climate change
; climate modeling
; drought
; flood
; hydrometeorology
; rainfall
; regional climate
; river discharge
; seasonality
; water level
; watershed
; Pantanal
; Paraguay Basin
; Paraguay River
|
| 英文摘要: | In the Brazilian Pantanal, hydrometeorological conditions exhibit a large interannual variability. This variability includes the seasonality of floods and droughts which can be related to land surface processes and to El Niño/La Niña. Based on regional climate change projections derived from the Eta-HadGEM2 ES models with 20 km latitude-longitude resolution for the RCP8.5 for 2071-2100, it is expected that there will be an annual mean warming of up to or above 5-7°C and a 30% reduction in rainfall by the end of the 21st century. As a consequence of higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, an increased water deficit would be expected, particularly in the central and eastern parts of the basin during spring and summer, which could affect the pulse of the Paraguay River. While the changes projected by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES are consistent with the changes produced by the CMIP5 models for the same scenario and time slice, we can affirm that changes in the hydrology of the Pantanal are uncertain, because in a comparison of CMIP5 and Eta-HadGEM2 ES model projections, some show increases in rainfall and in the discharges of the Paraguay Basin, while others show reductions. © Inter-Research 2016. |
| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116405
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Marengo J.A.,Alves L.M.,Torres R.R.. Regional climate change scenarios in the Brazilian Pantanal watershed[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,68(2019-02-03)
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