DOI: 10.3354/cr01396
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966472229
论文题名: Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
作者: Tencer B. ; Bettolli M.L. ; Rusticucci M.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 68, 期: 2019-02-03 起始页码: 183
结束页码: 199
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Compound extremes
; Extreme temperature
; Heavy precipitation
; Regional climate models
Scopus关键词: advection
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; cold front
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; high temperature
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; regional climate
; spatial distribution
; trough
; Argentina
; South America
英文摘要: In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of intense precipitation (daily rainfall higher than the 75th percentile) significantly increases during or following a warm night (minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile), but decreases during a cold night (minimum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) during the warm season. Heavy precipitation events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm days (maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile) or following such an event in eastern Argentina, but they rarely occur before. In contrast, cold days (maximum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) happen more often after an intense rain. Compound events are usually associated with 1 or 2 typical circulation patterns in each subregion. For example, warm days and heavy precipitation tends to occur more often when a trough over the Pacific Ocean and a cold front over the continent lead to warm and wet air advected to the east of the region of study. We also analysed the skill of 7 regional climate models from the CLARIS LPB project to simulate the statistical relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes in 1990-2000. Overall, models were able to simulate an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during warm nights and cold days, and an inhibition of precipitation during cold nights. However, models tend to fail to capture the spatial distribution of the compound extreme events in southeastern South America. © Inter-Research 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116410
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Tencer B.,Bettolli M.L.,Rusticucci M.. Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,68(2019-02-03)