DOI: 10.3354/cr01360
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961775737
论文题名: Effects of climate change on heating and cooling degree days and potential energy demand in the household sector of China
作者: Shi Y. ; Gao X. ; Xu Y. ; Giorgi F. ; Chen D.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 67, 期: 2 起始页码: 135
结束页码: 149
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; Climate change
; Heating and cooling degree days
; Regional climate model
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; cooling
; demand analysis
; energy planning
; future prospect
; heating
; household energy
; household survey
; model validation
; policy development
; prediction
; regional climate
; China
英文摘要: Future changes of heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) in the 21st century over mainland China are projected with a regional climate model to investigate the potential effects of climate change on energy demand in the household sector. Validation of the model shows a good performance in reproducing the spatial distribution, magnitude and interannual variability of the present day HDD and CDD. Significant decreases in HDD and increases in CDD are projected under the warming. These are further weighted by population projections for a first-order assessment of future changes in energy demand. A larger decrease in population-weighted regional mean HDD compared to the increase in CDD is projected, indicating a decrease of about 15% in potential energy demand for different periods and scenarios in the future. In addition, the simulations show a marked spatial heterogeneity in the change in energy demand. Specifically, we find increases in both heating and cooling demand in parts of northern China due to the increased population there, an increase in cooling demand in the south and decreases in heating demand in the northernmost and western regions. Furthermore, a seasonal shift occurs, with increasing demand in summer and a decrease in winter. Finally, when the future reference temperatures for household heating and cooling change from standards currently used in China to values closer to those in Europe and the USA, potentially large increases in energy demand (∼80%) are expected, illustrating the importance of policy decisions concerning household heating and cooling. © The authors 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116422
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Shi Y.,Gao X.,Xu Y.,et al. Effects of climate change on heating and cooling degree days and potential energy demand in the household sector of China[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,67(2)