globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3354/cr01322
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940558272
论文题名:
Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: A crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces
作者: Pirttioja N.; Carter T.R.; Fronzek S.; Bindi M.; Hoffmann H.; Palosuo T.; Ruiz-Ramos M.; Tao F.; Trnka M.; Acutis M.; Asseng S.; Baranowski P.; Basso B.; Bodin P.; Buis S.; Cammarano D.; Deligios P.; Destain M.-F.; Dumont B.; Ewert F.; Ferrise R.; François L.; Gaiser T.; Hlavinka P.; Jacquemin I.; Kersebaum K.C.; Kollas C.; Krzyszczak J.; Lorite I.J.; Minet J.; Minguez M.I.; Montesino M.; Moriondo M.; Müller C.; Nendel C.; Öztürk I.; Perego A.; Rodríguez A.; Ruane A.C.; Ruget F.; Sanna M.; Semenov M.A.; Slawinski C.; Stratonovitch P.; Supit I.; Waha K.; Wang E.; Wu L.; Zhao Z.; Rötter R.P.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2015
卷: 65
起始页码: 87
结束页码: 105
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ; Crop model ; Impact response surface ; IRS ; Sensitivity analysis ; Wheat ; Yield
Scopus关键词: annual variation ; baseline conditions ; climate change ; crop yield ; precipitation (climatology) ; transect ; Finland ; Germany ; Spain ; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development. © Inter-Research 2015.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116481
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Recommended Citation:
Pirttioja N.,Carter T.R.,Fronzek S.,et al. Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: A crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces[J]. Climate Research,2015-01-01,65
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