DOI: 10.3354/cr01279
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84932161603
论文题名: Our commitment to climate change is dependent on past, present and future emissions and decisions
作者: Rummukainen M.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2015
卷: 64, 期: 1 起始页码: 7
结束页码: 14
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate change commitment
; CO2 emissions
; Global warming
Scopus关键词: carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate change
; decision analysis
; emission control
; fossil fuel
; global warming
; land use change
; long-term change
; socioeconomic status
英文摘要: The present day global climate change is fueled by our use of fossil fuels and land use change. The already observed warming and other distinct changes in the climate system stem from these human influences and are ongoing. Due to climate system inertia, a part of the climate system's response to this historical forcing remains to manifest itself, which it will do over time. At the same time, socio-economic forces and trends imply some amount of additional emission and land use change, which compounds our commitment to even more substantial climate change. Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions are the basic determinant of the ultimate amount of anthropogenic climate change. Climate system properties, such as climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle, and also possible initiation of non-linear changes, further shape the amount and nature of the long-term change for any set amount of greenhouse gas emissions. While a changed climate is, in practice, now unavoidable, our commitment to continued climate change can be constrained by reductions of global carbon dioxide emissions, their cessation and/or negative emissions. These alternatives have different implications for the long-term unfolding of these changes, but can all considerably reduce the possibility of very large amounts of change, the need for adaptation and responses to negative impacts. © The authors 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116490
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Rummukainen M.. Our commitment to climate change is dependent on past, present and future emissions and decisions[J]. Climate Research,2015-01-01,64(1)