DOI: 10.3354/cr01265
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84932127437
论文题名: Effect of a high-end CO<inf>2</inf>-emission scenario on hydrology
作者: Karlsson I.B. ; Sonnenborg T.O. ; Seaby L.P. ; Jensen K.H. ; Refsgaard J.C.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2015
卷: 64, 期: 1 起始页码: 39
结束页码: 54
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; High-end scenarios
; Hydrological modelling
; Impact study
Scopus关键词: carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; catchment
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; data set
; evapotranspiration
; global warming
; groundwater
; hydrological modeling
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; precipitation (climatology)
; soil moisture
; temperature effect
; water budget
; water level
; Denmark
英文摘要: In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071-2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface-subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects. © The authors 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116492
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
Recommended Citation:
Karlsson I.B.,Sonnenborg T.O.,Seaby L.P.,et al. Effect of a high-end CO<inf>2</inf>-emission scenario on hydrology[J]. Climate Research,2015-01-01,64(1)