DOI: 10.1002/joc.5915
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85057469572
论文题名: On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest
作者: Neri A. ; Villarini G. ; Salvi K.A. ; Slater L.J. ; Napolitano F.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 3 起始页码: 1796
结束页码: 1804
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal prediction
; flood frequency
; general circulation model
; peak-over-threshold
; seasonal
; statistical modelling
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Gaging
; Decadal predictions
; Flood frequency
; General circulation model
; Peak over threshold
; seasonal
; Statistical modelling
; Floods
英文摘要: Skilful predictions of the frequency of flood events over long lead times (e.g., from 1 to 10 years ahead) are essential for governments and institutions making near-term flood risk plans. However, little is known about current flood prediction capabilities over annual to decadal timescales. Here we address this knowledge gap at 286 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations across the U.S. Midwest using precipitation and temperature decadal predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 models. We use the 1–10-year predictions of precipitation and temperature as inputs to statistical models that have significant skill in reproducing inter-annual and decadal changes in the observed frequency of flood events. Our results indicate that the limited skill of basin-averaged precipitation predictions suppresses the skill of flood event frequency predictions, even at the shortest lead time, but downscaling and bias correction improves predictions across all lead times and especially in spring. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116519
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Civil, Constructional and Environmental Engineering, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy; IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Pune, India; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Neri A.,Villarini G.,Salvi K.A.,et al. On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(3)