DOI: 10.1002/joc.5870
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054533912
论文题名: High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines
作者: Gallo F. ; Daron J. ; Macadam I. ; Cinco T. ; Villafuerte M. ; II ; Buonomo E. ; Tucker S. ; Hein-Griggs D. ; Jones R.G.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 3 起始页码: 1181
结束页码: 1194
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate projections
; regional climate model
; tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Climate change
; Electric power system interconnection
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Tropics
; Climate projection
; Future projections
; Global climate model simulations
; Horizontal resolution
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate models
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Climate models
英文摘要: The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in the world to tropical cyclones. In order to provide information to help the country build resilience and plan for a future under a warmer climate, we build on previous research to investigate implications of future climate change on tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Experiments were conducted using three regional climate models with horizontal resolutions of approximately 12 km (HadGEM3-RA) and 25 km (HadRM3P and RegCM4). The simulations are driven by boundary data from a subset of global climate model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble. Here we present the experimental design, the methodology for selecting CMIP5 models, the results of the model validation, and future projections of changes to tropical cyclone frequency and intensity by the mid-21st century. The models used are shown to represent the key climatological features of tropical cyclones across the domain, including the seasonality and general distribution of intensities, but issues remain in resolving very intense tropical cyclones and simulating realistic trajectories across their life-cycles. Acknowledging model inadequacies and uncertainties associated with future climate model projections, the results show a range of plausible changes with a tendency for fewer but slightly more intense tropical cyclones. These results are consistent with the basin-wide results reported in the IPCC AR5 and provide clear evidence that the findings from these previous studies are applicable in the Philippines region. © 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116556
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia; Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Gallo F.,Daron J.,Macadam I.,et al. High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(3)