DOI: 10.1002/joc.5861
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053823760
论文题名: Projected changes in drought across the wheat belt of southeastern Australia using a downscaled climate ensemble
作者: Feng P. ; Liu D.L. ; Wang B. ; Waters C. ; Zhang M. ; Yu Q.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 2 起始页码: 1041
结束页码: 1053
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; drought
; rSPEI
; southeastern Australia
; spatio-temporal variations
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Drought
; Drought characteristics
; Global climate model
; Gradual transformations
; Increased temperature
; rSPEI
; South-eastern Australia
; Spatio-temporal variation
; Temporal and spatial changes
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; drought
; evapotranspiration
; regional climate
; seasonality
; spatial variation
; temporal variation
; wheat
; Australia
; New South Wales
; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Drought is viewed as a naturally recurring phenomenon in many Australian agricultural systems. Identifying regional changes in frequency and severity of drought induced by climate change is required to develop regionally specific adaptation strategies. In this study, we provided a first look at the impacts of climate change on 21st century drought characteristics over the New South Wales wheat belt of southeastern Australia. These impacts were assessed from an ensemble of 28 statistical downscaled global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). A modified relative standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (rSPEI) at the seasonal scale (3 months) was used to analyse temporal and spatial changes in drought. Results indicated that there was a tendency towards more frequent and severe winter–spring droughts over the study area. Moreover, winter–spring drought prone areas were expected to expand from west to east. Until the end of the 21st century, more than half the wheat belt would be vulnerable to winter–spring drought. The combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperature during future winter and spring seasons were the main reasons causing these changes of drought. In addition, summer and autumn droughts would have both slight temporal and spatial changes across the study region. This study also revealed that traditionally dry areas would likely experience an increased frequency of drought compared to wetter areas when subjected to a same increase in temperature or decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the western part of the wheat belt might be unsuitable for winter crops in the future, or at least exposed to an increased risk of variable yield and would require a gradual transformation which might include summer crops or pastures. Investments in cropping land should be focused on the east part of the wheat belt to achieve more consistent financial returns. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116570
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange Agricultural Institute, Orange, NSW, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Feng P.,Liu D.L.,Wang B.,et al. Projected changes in drought across the wheat belt of southeastern Australia using a downscaled climate ensemble[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(2)