DOI: 10.1002/joc.5843
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053482749
论文题名: Modelling the impacts of the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on a drought event in southwestern China with a piecewise-integration method
作者: Gan R. ; Yang Y. ; Ma Y.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 2 起始页码: 799
结束页码: 813
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change attribution
; CP El Niño
; drought over southwestern China
; piecewise-integration method
; sea surface temperature anomalies
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Drought
; Errors
; Integration
; Nickel compounds
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Water vapor
; Continuous integrations
; Continuous simulation
; Eastern pacific Ocean
; Long-term integration
; Piecewise integration
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Short-term simulation
; Thermodynamic factors
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; climate change
; computer simulation
; drought
; modeling
; numerical method
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; water vapor
; China
; Pacific Ocean
; South China Sea
英文摘要: Model-based sensitivity experiments are a widely used method for studying climate change attributions. In traditional climate sensitivity studies, “climate drift” occurs because of the accumulation of model errors during long-term integrations, both in “actual” and “hypothetical” states. A more accurate piecewise-integration method is used to reduce the model errors, dividing the continuous simulation into a series of sequential short-term simulations. The model fields are updated at the end of each subinterval with analysis data for the “actual” state run, and with the sum of the analysis data and the difference between “hypothetical” and “actual” states for the “hypothetical” state run. This paper conducts sensitivity experiments with the continuous-integration method and the piecewise-integration method to evaluate the impacts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the severe drought that occurred in southwestern China (SWC) in the winter of 2009/2010. The results show the following. (a) Model errors produced by the piecewise-integration method for the actual state simulation are significantly less than those produced by the continuous-integration method. (b) The intensity of the drought is significantly overestimated in continuous-integration experiments. However, the drought can be accurately simulated in its spatial distribution and intensity via the piecewise-integration method. Thus, climate sensitivity to changes in external forcing can be studied with greater credibility. (c) The warm central Pacific Ocean SSTAs may be the main cause of the drought over SWC. Adequate precipitation occurred over SWC when the centre of the SSTAs shifted to the east. (d) Warm SSTAs over the central Pacific Ocean influenced precipitation over SWC by weakening the water vapour transport branch from South China Sea to SWC. With a deficit of water vapour, the pronounced subsidence and warm temperatures were the main dynamic and thermodynamic factors that caused and maintained the drought. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116575
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
Recommended Citation:
Gan R.,Yang Y.,Ma Y.. Modelling the impacts of the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on a drought event in southwestern China with a piecewise-integration method[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(2)