DOI: 10.1002/joc.5979
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061076026
论文题名: Quantitative scenarios for future hydrologic extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains
作者: Mullens E.D. ; McPherson R.A.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; drought
; extreme precipitation
; regional projections
; scenario planning
; statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Drought
; Extreme precipitation
; Intense precipitation
; Management challenges
; Precipitation gradients
; regional projections
; Scenario Planning
; Southern great plains
; Statistical downscaling
; Climate change
英文摘要: Decision-makers using climate projection information are often faced with the problem of data breadth, complexity, and uncertainty, which complicates the translation of climate science products in addressing management challenges. Recently, the concept of climate scenario planning attempts to simplify climate information by developing a series of plausible future “storylines.” In some cases, however, these storylines lack quantitative detail on extremes that may be useful to decision-makers. Here, we analyse a large suite of statistically downscaled climate projections from two methods to develop quantitative projections for hydrologic extremes (heavy precipitation and drought) across Oklahoma and Texas in the United States. Downscaled projections are grouped into four specific temperature/precipitation scenarios, including “Warm/Wet,” “Hot/Dry,” “Central Tendency,” and the full multi-model ensemble average. The region is split into three sub-domains spanning the region's west–east precipitation gradient, and projections are examined throughout the mid- and late-21st century, using two emissions scenarios (“mid-range” and “high”). Most scenarios project increased frequency and duration of moderate or greater drought across the whole domain, with the high-emissions Hot/Dry projections showing the most severe examples. The Warm/Wet scenario also increases the frequency of dry months, particularly in the Southern High Plains, but does not discernably alter duration, and retains a similar frequency of pluvial (wet) periods. The mid-range projections generally retain similar evolutions among scenarios, but they reduce drought intensity and project no change in drought/pluvial frequency with the Warm/Wet scenario. Notably, the occurrence of intense precipitation increases across all scenarios and emissions categories and does not significantly differ between any of the scenarios, including Hot/Dry versus Warm/Wet. Some observed differences in extreme precipitation magnitudes between the two downscaled data sets are briefly discussed. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116642
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: U.S. Department of the Interior (U.S. DOI) South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, OK, United States; Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mullens E.D.,McPherson R.A.. Quantitative scenarios for future hydrologic extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01