DOI: 10.1002/joc.5788
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053446781
论文题名: Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 detection and attribution experiments
作者: Dey R. ; Lewis S.C. ; Abram N.J.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 1 起始页码: 112
结束页码: 127
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Australian rainfall
; Australian summer monsoon index
; CMIP5 models
; precipitation extremes
; precipitation trends
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric movements
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Australian rainfall
; Australian summer monsoons
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Detection and attributions
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation trends
; Rain
; CMIP
; detection method
; experimental study
; extreme event
; monsoon
; precipitation intensity
; seasonal variation
; trend analysis
; Australia
英文摘要: Mean and extreme northwest Australian (NWA) summertime rainfall has increased significantly since 1950. While previous studies have explored a range of possible factors impacting NWA rainfall, the causes of this increase and possible future changes remain uncertain. This study explores the increasing NWA summertime rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. By using a suite of models that contributed realizations of the historical period with various forcings, we explore the impact to this region of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions since 1950 on mean rainfall and three extreme rainfall indices. The observed NWA rainfall trend is better captured in models when all forcings are included compared to simulations with only greenhouse gas forcing or with only natural forcing, although the models have a large spread. We hypothesise that anthropogenic aerosols played a major role in the observed rainfall trends, and the associated increase in monsoonal flow, and hence historicalNat and historicalGHG simulations tend not to capture observed rainfall trend. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger increase in mean summer precipitation and extreme indices of NWA rainfall in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations than in RCP2.6. The NWA region shows intensified extreme events with fewer heavy precipitation days, but the reliability of these projections in this region should be further tested with estimates of future anthropogenic aerosol changes. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116654
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; University of New South Wales–Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Dey R.,Lewis S.C.,Abram N.J.. Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 detection and attribution experiments[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(1)