globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5827
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052913356
论文题名:
Long-term probability of drought characteristics based on Monte Carlo simulation approach
作者: Montaseri M.; Amirataee B.; Yasi M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:1
起始页码: 544
结束页码: 557
语种: 英语
英文关键词: drought ; joint probability ; Monte Carlo ; stochastic models ; transition probability matrix
Scopus关键词: Intelligent systems ; Monte Carlo methods ; Probability density function ; Probability distributions ; Rain ; Stochastic models ; Stochastic systems ; Climatic conditions ; Drought characteristics ; Joint probability ; Monte Carlo procedures ; Standardized precipitation index ; Stochastic procedure ; Transition probabilities ; Transition probability matrix ; Drought ; computer simulation ; drought ; Monte Carlo analysis ; numerical model ; precipitation intensity ; probability ; rainfall ; stochasticity ; weather forecasting
英文摘要: In this study, an advanced stochastic procedure was applied to establish long-term probability of different drought characteristics in 10 different parts of the world with various climatic conditions. Such purpose cannot be accomplished with a single historical data record, because the historical data record, no matter its length, represents only a realization of all such possible sequences of similar length. For this reason, a stochastic procedure was extensively used to generate alternative sequences of rainfall data in the selected 10 rainfall stations. Then, the generated synthetic rainfall sequences were served as a basis for drought monitoring using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which produce a set of realizations of possible drought characteristics. The long-term probability distribution of non-exceedance of drought duration, intensity, inter-arrival time, density function of wet and dry periods, empirical joint probability of drought duration and severity, and transition probabilities of drought events were considered and developed as very useful guide on drought management and investigation. The results indicated the essential advantages of proposed methodology (Monte Carlo procedure) in long-term drought characteristics investigations. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116662
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran; Department of Water Engineering, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran; Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj Campus, Karaj, Iran

Recommended Citation:
Montaseri M.,Amirataee B.,Yasi M.. Long-term probability of drought characteristics based on Monte Carlo simulation approach[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(1)
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