DOI: 10.1002/joc.5774
论文题名: Influence of the Pacific and Indian Ocean climate drivers on the rainfall in Vietnam
作者: Duc H.N. ; Bang H.Q. ; Quang N.X.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 15 起始页码: 5717
结束页码: 5732
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Asian monsoon
; Bayesian model averaging
; climate drivers
; ENSO
; IOD
; IPO
; rainfall
; Vietnam
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Bayesian networks
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Sea level
; Surface waters
; Asian monsoon
; Bayesian model averaging
; ENSO
; Geo-potential heights
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Statistical techniques
; Viet Nam
; Rain
; Bayesian analysis
; climate effect
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Indian Ocean Dipole
; monsoon
; numerical model
; rainfall
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Viet Nam
英文摘要: Rainfall in Vietnam is strongly influenced by climate drivers which are caused by anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP) or geopotential height in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. This paper analyses the rainfall records at different sites in various regions of Vietnam to determine the influence of the three major climate drivers, the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), IPO (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and their interaction on the rainfall at each of these sites. A statistical technique called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to discuss and address the uncertainties problem in model and variable selection when fitting observed rainfall data with climate drivers' indices. The results show that the ENSO, IPO and IOD and their interaction overall have very minor roles in influencing the rainfall in Northern Vietnam but they have some influences on the rainfall in the central and southern parts of Vietnam. Furthermore, seasonality analysis shows the spring rainfall in Vietnam is strongly influenced by the ENSO, IOD and ENSO*IOD interaction, with ENSO*IOD interaction strongest in the north. The situation in summer is similar but the IOD is most dominant compared to the ENSO and ENSO*IOD interaction. In autumn, the IOD and ENSO influences on rainfall are weaker while the IPO has strong influence in the Central and Southern Vietnam and no climate driver has any influence in the north. And during winter, the IPO, ENSO and IPO*ENSO interaction are associated with rainfall variability across Vietnam while the IOD influence is insignificant. The results also confirm the previous studies on the teleconnection roles of SST in the Pacific and Indian Oceans on rainfall variability in Vietnam. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116694
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Environmental Quality, Atmospheric Science and Climate Change Research Group, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Faculty of Environment and Labour Safety, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Department of Environmental Management and Technology Institute of Tropical Biology (ITB), Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Graduate University of Science and Technology, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Viet Nam
Recommended Citation:
Duc H.N.,Bang H.Q.,Quang N.X.. Influence of the Pacific and Indian Ocean climate drivers on the rainfall in Vietnam[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(15)