DOI: 10.1002/joc.5776
论文题名: Using historical normals to improve modern monthly climate normal surfaces for Madagascar
作者: Stalenberg E. ; Hutchinson M.F. ; Foley W.J.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 15 起始页码: 5746
结束页码: 5765
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Africa
; climate anomalies
; climate surfaces
; kriging
; Madagascar
; rainfall
; sparse data
; thin plate smoothing splines
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Contour measurement
; Economics
; Interpolation
; Mapping
; Productivity
; Rain
; Africa
; Climate anomalies
; Kriging
; Madagascar
; Sparse data
; Thin plate smoothing splines
; Climate change
; accuracy assessment
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; kriging
; mapping
; regional climate
; regional pattern
; smoothing
; spatial analysis
; Madagascar
英文摘要: High-resolution, spatially continuous climate models are an essential first step in assessing fine-scale impacts of climate and projected future climates. Observational weather station networks supporting such models are often inadequate and are spread unevenly throughout the globe, particularly in developing regions such as Madagascar, since network establishment and maintenance requires significant investment. Quality climate models are greatly needed for the assessment of conservation, agricultural productivity and socio-economic studies of climate vulnerability. With the aim of generating improved modern climate normal surfaces for Madagascar, we have developed a method for augmenting the existing sparse climate normal network with spatial patterns of climate change derived from more densely distributed historical climate normals. Thin plate smoothing splines and kriging were applied to the spatial analysis of the climate difference patterns and their performances were compared. We found that the augmented data improved the spatial consistency of the climate interpolations when compared with the interpolations using only the existing observed data. Our analysis confirmed the robustness and accuracy of thin plate spline interpolation when applied to long-term differences in climate normals. Further, the investigation indicated that long-term differences in rainfall normals have broader spatial coherence and are less susceptible to local differences when compared to temperature normals. This suggests that long term change patterns in rainfall are better supported by sparse data networks, despite the usually acknowledged greater inherent spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. The augmented data capture distinct spatial patterns in temperature and rainfall that differ markedly from the patterns in interpolations of observed data alone. The derived change patterns are consistent with observed global trends. This technique might be used to improve understanding of the current climate in other data-poor regions and the outputs used in spatial environmental and socio-economic studies, such as species distribution mapping and climate change resilience mapping. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116696
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, College of Science, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia; Department of Animal Ecology and Conservation, University of Hamburg, Martin-Luther-King Platz 3Hamburg, Germany; Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Stalenberg E.,Hutchinson M.F.,Foley W.J.. Using historical normals to improve modern monthly climate normal surfaces for Madagascar[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(15)