DOI: 10.1002/joc.5773
论文题名: Climate change projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multi-model weighted ensembles for Mexico, the North American monsoon, and the mid-summer drought region
作者: Colorado-Ruiz G. ; Cavazos T. ; Salinas J.A. ; De Grau P. ; Ayala R.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 15 起始页码: 5699
结束页码: 5716
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5
; Mexico
; monsoon
; MSD
; projections
; REA
; weighted ensembles
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Drought
; Electric power system interconnection
; CMIP5
; Me-xico
; monsoon
; projections
; weighted ensembles
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; drought
; ensemble forecasting
; future prospect
; monsoon
; performance assessment
; regional climate
; reliability analysis
; summer
; Mexico [North America]
; North America
英文摘要: Two versions of the “reliability ensemble averaging” (REA and REA Xu) method and an unweighted mean were used to generate multi-model ensembles of 14 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for a baseline (1971–2000) period and future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the 21st century. To test the consistency of the REA ensembles at different scales, one ensemble was area-averaged at regional scale and two were obtained at 50-km gridpoints. Climatic metrics of temperature and precipitation during the baseline period served to evaluate the performance of the GCMs and the ensembles in the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid-summer drought (MSD) regions. The metrics of the three REA ensembles are very similar among them in each region and show a better performance than the unweighted multi-model ensemble (U-MME). The majority of the GCMs overestimate winter precipitation in the NAM and fail to retract the end of the monsoon in autumn; REA ensembles reduce this overestimation. All ensembles capture well the MSD's double peak of rainfall, but underestimate summer precipitation. According to all ensembles, temperature increases of 1.5–2 °C in the two regions may be reached between 2035 and 2055 relative to the baseline, and by 2070–2099 temperature (precipitation) in Mexico may increase (decrease) between 2° C (5%) and 5.8 °C (10%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual changes of precipitation show a north (positive) and south of 35°N (negative) pattern. The largest impacts are expected during summer with a possible decrease of ~13% (up to −1.5 mm/day), especially in southern Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, while autumn precipitation may slightly increase. Future projections from the REA Xu (by gridpoint) ensemble show spatial patterns similar to the U-MME, but with more regional detail, which could be an added value for regional climate impact studies. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116699
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico; Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Colorado-Ruiz G.,Cavazos T.,Salinas J.A.,et al. Climate change projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multi-model weighted ensembles for Mexico, the North American monsoon, and the mid-summer drought region[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(15)