DOI: 10.1002/joc.5766
论文题名: Divergent responses of thermal growing degree-days and season to projected warming over China
作者: Deng H. ; Yin Y. ; Wu S.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 15 起始页码: 5605
结束页码: 5618
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; climate change
; growing season
; temperature sensitivity
; thermal growing degree-days
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Earth atmosphere
; China
; General circulation model
; Growing degree days
; Growing season
; Spatio-temporal changes
; Temperature sensitivity
; Thermal condition
; Vegetation growth
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; growing season
; sensitivity analysis
; spatial variation
; temporal variation
; warming
; China
; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
英文摘要: Thermal conditions, such as thermal growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS), have primary effects on vegetation growth. In this study, changes in GDD and GS during 1961–2099 in China have been projected using the daily mean temperatures derived from five general circulation models. The multi-model mean values generally capture the spatio-temporal changes in GDD and GS during 1961–2005 and are thus used for predicting the thermal conditions in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs). The GDD and GS are found to increase with warming, with stronger GDD enhancement in south and southwest China and larger GS extension in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Plateau. On average, nationally, the GDD increase and GS extension in the long term (2071–2099) range from 279.1 °C·d and 16.5 days for RCP 2.6 to 964.4 °C·d and 50.3 days for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981–2010. Advances in the start of the growing season would drive the GS extension in the mountainous area in northeast China, as well as south and southwest China. On the contrary, the delay at the end of the growing season would drive the GS extension in northwest China and the regions between northeast China and the tropic of Cancer. An analysis under RCP 8.5 suggests that the temperature sensitivity of GDD would increase from the near term (2011–2040) to the long term for the eastern monsoon zone (237.5to 262.1 °C·d/°C) and the northwest arid/semi-arid zone (162.3 to 184.0 °C·d/°C). However, the sensitivity of GS to the warming would decrease from 10.9 to 8.4 days/°C and 9.1 to 6.8 days/°C for these two regions, respectively. As thermal conditions intensify, temperature zones in eastern China would progressively shift northward. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116703
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Deng H.,Yin Y.,Wu S.. Divergent responses of thermal growing degree-days and season to projected warming over China[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(15)