DOI: 10.1002/joc.5738
论文题名: Extreme value analysis and forecasting of maximum precipitation amounts in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey
作者: Yozgatlıgil C. ; Türkeş M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 15 起始页码: 5447
结束页码: 5458
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change and variability
; extreme precipitation
; generalized extreme value distribution
; Turkey
; VARMAX modelling
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Forecasting
; Location
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Wind effects
; Autocorrelation structures
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme value analysis
; Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions
; Generalized extreme value distribution
; Multivariate time series models
; Probabilistic approaches
; Turkey
; Time series analysis
; climate change
; climate variation
; extreme event
; forecasting method
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; Black Sea Coast [Turkey]
; Turkey
英文摘要: Monthly maximum precipitation amounts for the period 1950–2010 were modelled for seven climatological stations in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey using a distributional and time series analysis approach. First, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was fitted using the location parameter of the GEV distribution as a function of several explanatory variables that affect the maximum precipitation. We quantified the change in extreme precipitation for each location and derived estimates of return levels for monthly precipitation amounts. We also considered a multivariate time series model with exogenous variables using the selected locations for a short-term forecast of the maximum precipitation amount. It was discovered that the time series model that takes into account the autocorrelation structure of the series performed better than a probabilistic approach using the extreme value theory. The obtained forecast results are promising in terms of accurately defining future precipitation amounts. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116709
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey; The Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, İstanbul, Turkey
Recommended Citation:
Yozgatlıgil C.,Türkeş M.. Extreme value analysis and forecasting of maximum precipitation amounts in the western Black Sea subregion of Turkey[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(15)