globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5764
论文题名:
Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021–2050
作者: Hao Z.; Geng X.; Wang F.; Zheng J.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:15
起始页码: 5576
结束页码: 5588
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; northern China ; planting boundary ; precipitation before winter ; sowing date ; the first day of the overwintering period ; winter wheat overwintering
Scopus关键词: Crops ; Low temperature production ; Temperature ; Northern China ; planting boundary ; Sowing date ; the first day of the overwintering period ; Winter wheat ; Climate change ; agrometeorology ; climate change ; climate effect ; extreme event ; overwintering ; precipitation (climatology) ; sowing date ; warming ; wheat ; China ; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Climate change has a significant impact on agrometeorological conditions. We analysed the winter wheat overwintering indices for the northern winter wheat production areas of China (NWPA), which include the percentage of extreme low-temperature (daily minimum temperature ≤−22 °C) years, the first day of the overwintering period (FDO), sowing date (SD) and precipitation before winter (PBW). Then, we compared the differences of the four indices between the forecast period 2021–2050 and the baseline period 1961–1990 under the RCP4.5 scenario, which were based on the 0.5° × 0.5° grid daily meteorological data output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The results showed that the occurrence of extreme cold winters decreases the NWPA, which will result in the northern boundary of winter wheat moving north by 1–2 latitudes and in an increase in the potentially safe overwintering areas by 8.5%. The FDO will be delayed in 2021–2050 by an average of 7.7 days. Climate warming will change the meteorological conditions for winter wheat overwintering in the Huang-Huai winter wheat area, especially near the southern boundary of the winter wheat planting area, and the areas and years with no obvious overwintering periods will experience an increase by 50% and 56%, respectively. The SD will be postponed by 8.6–9.0 days. The PBW will decrease as the accumulated temperature increases, especially in the Huang-Huai winter wheat area. In the future, the possible northern boundary for winter wheat planting may move northward, and the northernmost tip may reach 46°N. South of the Huang-Huai region, winter wheat planting may change from a semi-winter to a spring variety. These findings will provide a reference for generating wheat planting and management strategies in China. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116714
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Hao Z.,Geng X.,Wang F.,et al. Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021–2050[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(15)
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