DOI: 10.1002/joc.5728
论文题名: On the reduction of trend errors by the ANOVA joint correction scheme used in homogenization of climate station records
作者: Lindau R. ; Venema V.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 14 起始页码: 5255
结束页码: 5271
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adjustment
; climate stations
; correction scheme
; homogenization
; temperature trends
Scopus关键词: Analysis of variance (ANOVA)
; Homogenization method
; Signal to noise ratio
; Systematic errors
; adjustment
; ANOVA (analysis of variance)
; Climate stations
; Correction method
; Correction schemes
; Low signal-to-noise ratio
; Measurement Noise
; Temperature trends
; Uncertainty analysis
; air temperature
; climate change
; error correction
; geostatistics
; homogeneity
; trend analysis
; variance analysis
; warming
英文摘要: Inhomogeneities in climate data are the main source of uncertainty for secular warming estimates. To reduce the influence of inhomogeneities in station data statistical homogenization compares a candidate station to its neighbours to detect and correct artificial changes in the candidate. Many studies have quantified the performance of statistical break detection tests used in this comparison. Also, full homogenization methods have been studied numerically, but correction methods by themselves have not been studied much. We analyse the ANOVA (analysis of variance) joint correction method, which is expected to be the most accurate published method. We find that, if all breaks are known, this method produces unbiased trend estimates and that in this case the uncertainty in the trend estimates is not determined by the variance of the inhomogeneities, but by the variance of the weather and measurement noise. For low signal-to-noise ratios and high numbers of breaks, the correction may also worsen the data by increasing the original random unbiased trend error. Any uncertainty in the break dates leads to a systematic undercorrection of the trend errors and in this more realistic case the variance of the inhomogeneities is also important. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116729
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Lindau R.,Venema V.. On the reduction of trend errors by the ANOVA joint correction scheme used in homogenization of climate station records[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(14)