DOI: 10.1002/joc.5714
论文题名: High-resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO-CLM
作者: Hochman A. ; Mercogliano P. ; Alpert P. ; Saaroni H. ; Bucchignani E.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 14 起始页码: 5095
结束页码: 5106
语种: 英语
英文关键词: COSMO-CLM
; downscaling
; eastern Mediterranean
; ETCCDI
; extreme precipitation
; extreme temperature
; Israel
; RCM
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Storms
; COSMO-CLM
; Down-scaling
; Eastern Mediterranean
; ETCCDI
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme temperatures
; Israel
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cyclone
; extreme event
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; spatial variation
; Israel
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: High-resolution climate projections over Israel (about 8 km) have been obtained with the regional model COSMO-CLM, nested into the CORDEX-MENA simulations at 25 km resolution. This simulation provides high-resolution spatial variability of total precipitation and precipitation intensity. Projections are presented not only in terms of average properties, but also using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the standard Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the period 2041–2070 with respect to 1981–2010 (RCP4.5). A general increase in seasonal mean temperature is projected throughout the domain with peaks of ~2.5 °C, especially in winter and autumn. Extreme temperature indices show increases, larger in the minimum than in the maximum temperatures. Regarding total seasonal precipitation, decreases were found in the north and central Mediterranean climate parts of Israel, with reductions reaching ~40%, and increases of the same percentage in the most southern arid parts during winter and spring. An increase in precipitation intensity is shown mostly for the southern arid part of the region, with some indications of extremity also in the north. This spatial pattern probably results from a decrease in cyclones’ occurrences, which mainly influences the northern and central parts of Israel, and an increase in convective activity in the south. The outcome of this study can serve as a basis for priority setting and policy formulation towards better climate adaptation. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116731
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, School of Geosciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel; Porter School of Environmental Studies, School of Geosciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel; Department of Geography and the Human Environment, School of Geosciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel; CMCC Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Capua, Italy; CIRA Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali, Capua, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Hochman A.,Mercogliano P.,Alpert P.,et al. High-resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO-CLM[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(14)