DOI: 10.1002/joc.5719
论文题名: Observed trends and future projections of extreme heat events in Sonora, Mexico
作者: Navarro-Estupiñan J. ; Robles-Morua A. ; Vivoni E.R. ; Zepeda J.E. ; Montoya J.A. ; Verduzco V.S.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 14 起始页码: 5168
结束页码: 5181
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; heat days
; heat waves
; North American monsoon
; temperature trends
Scopus关键词: Linear regression
; Adaptation strategies
; General circulation model
; Heat waves
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Linear regression models
; North American
; Temperature trends
; Temperature variation
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; extreme event
; general circulation model
; heat wave
; monsoon
; temperature anomaly
; trend analysis
; Mexico [North America]
; Sonora
英文摘要: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures have risen at an alarming pace since the early 20th century and this warming has been more pronounced since the 1970s. Temperature variations are significant because of their relation with thermal comfort and public health. In this study, we characterize the impacts of increasing maximum air temperatures in Sonora, Mexico. Heat days (HDs) and heat waves (HWs) were used as indicators to investigate historical trends in extreme heat. Furthermore, HDs were represented using a generalized linear regression model during the observed period (1966–2015) to generate future scenarios related to extreme heat and subsequently compared with six downscaled general circulation models (CNRM-CM5, CSIRO Mk3.6.0, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR) under low and high radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results of this work indicate that climate stations in Sonora have exhibited increases in the number of HDs and HWs in the historical record that can be associated to physical factors such as elevation, urban land cover and the percent of annual rainfall during the summer. Statistical and model-based projections indicate that these trends will continue in the future up to 2060, with less moderate increases and high uncertainty noted for the difference scenarios of the downscaled models. These observed and projected trends in extreme heat are important for identifying adaptation strategies in the public and environmental health sectors in Sonora. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116732
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Departamento de Ciencias del Agua y Medio Ambiente, Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Cd. Obregon, Son, Mexico; Laboratorio Nacional de Geoquímica y Mineralogía, Mexico City, Mexico; School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo, Son, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Navarro-Estupiñan J.,Robles-Morua A.,Vivoni E.R.,et al. Observed trends and future projections of extreme heat events in Sonora, Mexico[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(14)