DOI: 10.1002/joc.5724
论文题名: Assessment of future changes in Southeast Asian precipitation using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections data set
作者: Mandapaka P.V. ; Lo E.Y.M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 14 起始页码: 5231
结束页码: 5244
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; maritime continent
; NEX-GDDP
; precipitation extremes
; spatial analysis
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Coastal zones
; NASA
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Climate change impact assessments
; Extreme precipitation
; Future climate projections
; Maritime Continent
; NEX-GDDP
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation structure
; Spatial analysis
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; data set
; downscaling
; extreme event
; future prospect
; precipitation (climatology)
; spatial analysis
; Greater Sunda Islands
; Java
; New Guinea
; Philippines
; Sunda Isles
英文摘要: Extreme precipitation and associated flooding cause severe damage to society and the environment. Future climate projections suggest an intensification of precipitation extremes in many regions. However, there is an increasing need for climate change impact assessment at higher spatial resolution, particularly for regions with complex geography such as Southeast Asia (SEA). In this study, we analysed the NASA Earth Exchange 0.25° resolution daily precipitation projections from an ensemble of 20 climate models under two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The variability in future precipitation projections is analysed and quantified for six geographical subregions, two climatological regions (wet and dry), and the low-elevation coastal zones in SEA. Various aspects of precipitation structure are studied using indices that characterize precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, extreme precipitation amount, and maximum daily precipitation at annual and seasonal scales. The results show substantial increases in mean and extreme precipitation in many parts of SEA by the end of the 21st century under both emission scenarios, thus increasing the region's vulnerability to precipitation-driven hazards. The projected centennial increase in total annual precipitation relative to the baseline period of 1970–1999 when averaged over all land grid cells is about 15% under RCP8.5 scenario, with larger values (∼20%) over mainland SEA and Philippines and smaller values (∼6%) in Java island. The projected changes in extreme precipitation are stronger compared to the total annual precipitation under both emission scenarios. The New Guinea and Java regions show the largest and smallest increases in annual maximum daily precipitation, with ensemble mean values of 30 and 17%, respectively, under RCP8.5 scenario. The results also reveal large inter-model spread in projected changes, particularly during boreal winter and summer months. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116737
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
Recommended Citation:
Mandapaka P.V.,Lo E.Y.M.. Assessment of future changes in Southeast Asian precipitation using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections data set[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(14)