DOI: 10.1002/joc.5737
论文题名: Predicting future frost damage risk of kiwifruit in Korea under climate change using an integrated modelling approach
作者: Jeong Y. ; Chung U. ; Kim K.-H.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 14 起始页码: 5354
结束页码: 5367
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change impact assessment
; frost-forecasting model
; kiwifruit phenology model
; spring frost
Scopus关键词: Biology
; Climate models
; Damage detection
; Forecasting
; Risk assessment
; Adaptation strategies
; Biological response
; Climate change impact assessments
; Environmental factors
; Forecasting modeling
; Integrated modelling approach
; Kiwifruits
; Potential change
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; damage
; frost
; fruit
; integrated approach
; phenology
; risk factor
; Korea
; Actinidia deliciosa
英文摘要: As the climate changes, increasing variations in environmental factors directly influence crop cultivation at different magnitudes over a broad range of local communities worldwide. As a result, there is an urgent need to develop local impact assessments and adaptation strategies for use at local, rather than national or global, levels. In this study, we predicted the future frost damage of kiwifruit in the Jeonnam province, Korea, as a case study for the local impact assessment of climate change. This study included a series of models that integrated both the biological responses of plants and the physical influences of climatic factors. First, potential changes in the suitable area for kiwifruit cultivation under a changing climate were simulated using downscaled high resolution (1 km) climate data. Through the development of a frost-forecasting model and linking it to a kiwifruit phenology model, we also assessed the interaction of plant and climatic factors. Because of the warming climate, the last frost date in spring occurred 13.7 days earlier in average under climate change. Nevertheless, the potential risk of spring frost damage of kiwifruit continued to exist at a similar magnitude in the future. Additional study at the county level indicated that the date of bud burst is advancing even faster than the last frost date (approximately 1 day per every decade), resulting in the increasing risk of spring frost damage for kiwifruit through 2100. In this study, the local impacts of climate change on kiwifruit frost damage were assessed using the integrated modelling approach. As such, local policy makers and stakeholders will be able to prepare more realistic adaptation strategies to cope with upcoming threats in a changing climate. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116738
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Climate Services Research Department, APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Jeong Y.,Chung U.,Kim K.-H.. Predicting future frost damage risk of kiwifruit in Korea under climate change using an integrated modelling approach[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(14)