DOI: 10.1002/joc.5699
论文题名: What drives the decadal variation of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years?
作者: Zhang Y. ; Guo Y. ; Dong W. ; Li C.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 13 起始页码: 4818
结束页码: 4829
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 models
; decadal variation
; external forcing
; global land monsoon precipitation
; internal variability
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Decadal variations
; External forcing
; Internal variability
; Monsoon precipitation
; Northern hemisphere
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Arctic Oscillation
; atmospheric forcing
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; decadal variation
; monsoon
; Northern Hemisphere
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Global land monsoon precipitation (GLMP) has shown quasi-20-year oscillations overlying a significant downwards trend over the past 50 years (1951–2004). However, what drives this decadal variation remains an open question. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, in this study we explored the possible drivers for the decadal variation of GLMP and quantified their contributions. A downwards trend of −0.30 mm/day (100 years) is observed in GLMP over 1951–2004 that explains 30% of total decadal variance, and it is primarily attributed to anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) external forcing. Further analyses showed that the downwards trend in GLMP mainly results from the widespread drying over Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon domain. Faster growth of AAs amount in NH than Southern Hemisphere (SH) over the past 50 years results in a reduced hemispheric thermal contrast (cooler NH–warmer SH) due to more AA-forced cooling in NH. Reduced hemispheric thermal contrast facilitates a weakened NH summer monsoon circulation and finally suppresses monsoon precipitation. Besides the downwards trend, the remaining variation of GLMP exhibited quasi-20-year oscillations that explain 70% of total decadal variance. The decadal oscillations are primarily attributed to internal variability, in which the central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly and Arctic Oscillation together can explain 55% of its variation. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116754
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China; School of Atmospheric Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang Y.,Guo Y.,Dong W.,et al. What drives the decadal variation of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years?[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(13)