DOI: 10.1002/joc.5691
论文题名: On the relative influences of different ocean basin sea surface temperature anomalies on southern African rainfall in 20th and 21st century general circulation model simulations
作者: Lickley M. ; Solomon S.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 13 起始页码: 5003
结束页码: 5009
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; ensembles
; sea surface temperatures
; southern African rainfall
; teleconnections
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Coastal zones
; Rain
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Atlantic Ocean
; Ensembles
; General circulation model
; General circulation model simulations
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Southern oscillation
; Teleconnections
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; climate change
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; ocean basin
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; twentieth century
; twenty first century
; warming
; Atlantic Ocean
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: Southern Africa rainfall (SAR) is generally projected to decrease during the 21st century as a result of climate change, although there is some disagreement regarding the location and magnitude of this reduction in general circulation models (GCMs). Here we examine the robustness of the rainfall response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Previous work argues that warmer SSTs in the Indian Ocean suppress SAR. Other studies argue that El Niño leads to suppressed SAR. We examine the SAR response to SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Niño3.4 region both in observations and in two large ensembles of GCMs run over the 20th and 21st century. We find that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SSTs are most correlated with SAR, while correlations between SAR and the Indian Ocean are dominated by their respective responses to ENSO. This relationship appears to persist under a warming background state. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116765
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lickley M.,Solomon S.. On the relative influences of different ocean basin sea surface temperature anomalies on southern African rainfall in 20th and 21st century general circulation model simulations[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(13)