DOI: 10.1002/joc.5550
论文题名: Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical–dynamical approach
作者: Fuentes-Franco R. ; Giorgi F. ; Pavia E.G. ; Graef F. ; Coppola E.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 11 起始页码: 4051
结束页码: 4065
语种: 英语
英文关键词: hybrid model
; interannual variability
; seasonal forecast
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Regression analysis
; Surface waters
; Weather forecasting
; Wind effects
; High-resolution grids
; Hybrid model
; Interannual variability
; Multiple regression model
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasts
; Seasonal precipitations
; Southern oscillation
; Oceanography
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; statistical analysis
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Tropical)
; Mexico [North America]
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (East)
; Pacific Ocean (West)
英文摘要: We introduce a new hybrid scheme for seasonal precipitation prediction over the Mexican territory. The scheme takes as input sea surface temperature (SST) predicted from the ECMWF System 4 coupled model (Sys4) identifying three predictors, namely SST over the western Pacific (WP), eastern Pacific (EP) and tropical Atlantic (TA); these predictors are used to forecast precipitation on a high-resolution grid via a multiple regression model. Comparison of the performance of the hybrid scheme with the Sys4 model for ensemble re-forecasts for the period 1982–2010 shows that the hybrid model adds skill to the Sys4 forecast, with higher correlations and Heidke skill scores throughout most of the Mexican territory, both in winter and summer. In winter the contribution of the EP is dominant in modulating precipitation via the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while in summer the contributions of the WP and TA are dominant in different Mexican regions. The hybrid scheme, applied to high-resolution precipitation observations, also produces significant fine-scale variability of forecast skill and mechanism contributions. Overall, we show that our hybrid approach can provide a useful tool to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts over Mexico. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116793
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden; CICESE, Ensenada, Mexico; CONACYT, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Fuentes-Franco R.,Giorgi F.,Pavia E.G.,et al. Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical–dynamical approach[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(11)