DOI: 10.1002/joc.5553
论文题名: Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Silk Road Economic Belt regions by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensembles
作者: Han T. ; Chen H. ; Hao X. ; Wang H.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 11 起始页码: 4077
结束页码: 4091
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate extreme
; projection
; Silk Road Economic Belt region
Scopus关键词: Economics
; Floods
; Regional planning
; Roads and streets
; Silk
; Uncertainty analysis
; Annual mean precipitation
; Climate extremes
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Growing season lengths
; Precipitation extremes
; projection
; Regional economic development
; Silk roads
; Climate change
; climate change
; CMIP
; development strategy
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; flooding
; precipitation (climatology)
; temperature gradient
; China
; Kenya
; Moscow [(CTY) Russian Federation]
; Nairobi [Kenya]
; Nairobi [Nairobi (CNT)]
; Russian Federation
英文摘要: The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-century Maritime Silk Road is a development initiative proposed by the Chinese government. However, the Belt and Road regions involve a large population, and regional economic development is sensitive to climate change, particularly climate extreme events. Hence, it is of vital relevance to pay more attention to the climate extreme change over this region. In this study, changes in the temperature- and precipitation-related extremes over the Belt and Road regions are evaluated during the middle and the end of this century using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. Results present obvious changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices under both RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios against the current climate state (1986–2005). Changes generally present relatively larger magnitudes under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Projected multi-model ensemble results show a significant increase in warm events over Moscow and Nairobi. Additionally, cold events will decrease over central Europe, Moscow and central Asia, along with longer growing season length over these regions. The annual mean precipitation is reported to significantly increase over the region of Nairobi and the flooding events will be exacerbated across the Belt regions under a future warmer world, particularly over Moscow, Southeast Asia and Nairobi. Meanwhile, the region of West Asia will be likely to experience more drought and flooding events with the warming. However, we should also note that the inter-model uncertainty of these results is reported to increase with time and a relatively large model spread can be seen in precipitation-related indices when comparing with the temperature. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116794
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Han T.,Chen H.,Hao X.,et al. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Silk Road Economic Belt regions by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensembles[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(11)