globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5559
论文题名:
Projections of urban climate in the 2050s in a fast-growing city in Southeast Asia: The greater Ho Chi Minh City metropolitan area, Vietnam
作者: Doan V.Q.; Kusaka H.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:11
起始页码: 4155
结束页码: 4171
语种: 英语
英文关键词: developing countries ; dynamical downscaling ; Ho Chi Minh City ; mesoscale ; urban climate projection ; Vietnam ; WRF
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Developing countries ; Global warming ; Land use ; Weather forecasting ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Dynamical downscaling ; Global climate changes ; Mesoscale ; Regional climate projections ; Urban climates ; Viet Nam ; Weather research and forecasting models ; Climate models ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; developing world ; downscaling ; global warming ; mesoscale meteorology ; metropolitan area ; urban climate ; urbanization ; weather forecasting ; Ho Chi Minh City ; Viet Nam
英文摘要: Future urban climates will be influenced by both global climate change and localized urbanization, especially in fast-growing cities. This study provides regional climate projections for the 2050s for greater Ho Chi Minh (HCM) City, a fast-growing megacity in Southeast Asia. These projections are generated through dynamical downscaling of three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models driven with two different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Furthermore, this study numerically evaluates the impacts of future urbanization and global climate change on the thermal environment of this city. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce these projections, having first been updated with current and future (master plan-based) land use data with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. The results show that, in rural areas, the spatially averaged monthly mean air temperature in April is projected to increase by 1.2 and 1.7 °C by the 2050s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In newly urbanized areas, an additional warming of 0.5 °C is expected under both scenarios, which corresponds to 20–30% of the global warming. In particular, the additional warming due to urbanization can exceed 0.8 °C at night. The impact of future urbanization (0.5 °C) is comparable to the difference in the temperature increases achieved under the different RCP scenarios. Thus, this impact should be considered in studies of the future urban climates of fast-growing cities in developing countries. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116797
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作者单位: Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Doan V.Q.,Kusaka H.. Projections of urban climate in the 2050s in a fast-growing city in Southeast Asia: The greater Ho Chi Minh City metropolitan area, Vietnam[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(11)
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