DOI: 10.1002/joc.5666
论文题名: Process-based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models
作者: Pinto I. ; Jack C. ; Hewitson B.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 11 起始页码: 4251
结束页码: 4261
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; CORDEX
; precipitation changes
; SOM
; southern Africa
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Decision making
; Electric power system interconnection
; CMIP5
; CORDEX
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; General circulation model
; Precipitation change
; Regional climate projections
; Regional climate simulation
; Southern Africa
; Climate change
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; downscaling
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; Southern Africa
英文摘要: Decision-scale relevant climate information on climate change is needed to inform policy and decision making but often involves high uncertainty. To enhance confidence in interpreting regional climate projections, it is important to understand the underlying physical processes driving the change. This study explores a methodology to investigate climate change as a function of changes in frequency of synoptic circulation. The approach examines how dynamically downscaled future climate from two regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), driven with four general circulation models (GCMs), can give rise to surface climate changes that differ from those of the driving GCMs. The study focuses on changes in precipitation and the circulation processes driving the projected changes from the regional climate simulations. Despite uncertainty in future projections, the RCMs and GCMs both show decreases in precipitation over most of southern Africa and suggest a reduction (increase) in the frequency of circulation patterns associated with precipitation (no precipitation) over the region. However, some contradictions are seen in the centre of the domain for some ensemble members. This study shows that some of this disagreement in precipitation projections between GCMs and RCMs is due to the inconsistencies in the physical parameterizations of precipitation processes rather than inconsistences in regional-scale circulation patterns. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116798
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Pinto I.,Jack C.,Hewitson B.. Process-based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(11)