DOI: 10.1002/joc.5561
论文题名: Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models
作者: Carrillo C.M. ; Castro C.L. ; Garfin G. ; Chang H.-I. ; Bukovsky M.S. ; Mearns L.O.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 11 起始页码: 4189
结束页码: 4210
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO-PDV
; MTM-SVD
; NAM
; NARCCAP
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Digital storage
; Multivariant analysis
; Oceanography
; Quality control
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; ENSO-PDV
; Global Climate Model projections
; Interannual variability
; Multivariate statistical analysis
; NARCCAP
; Pacific decadal variabilities
; Regional climate changes
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Climate change
; air-sea interaction
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; climatology
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; monsoon
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; precipitation (chemistry)
; regional climate
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Climate inter-annual variability over the North American monsoon (NAM) region is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal variability (PDV), which drive a warm season atmospheric teleconnection response. Using the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations, previous studies have found that regional models forced with an atmospheric reanalysis (NARCCAP Phase I) represent the NAM reasonably well as a climatological feature. However, when these same regional models are forced with global climate model projections (NARCCAP Phase II), their ability to represent the NAM as a salient feature substantially degrades. The present study evaluates NAM inter-annual climate variability through the continental-scale patterns of summer precipitation within the NARCCAP simulations (Phases I and II), in relation to ENSO–PDV, and the presence of the driving atmospheric teleconnection response. Multivariate statistical analyses are applied to sea surface temperature and precipitation data sets to determine dominant variability at continental scale, with focus on the southwest. The analysis reveals that NARCCAP Phase I simulations are able to portray the spatial pattern of precipitation associated with ENSO–PDV in a similar way to observations. However, all NARCCAP Phase II simulations, with the exception of the HRM(Hadcm3) regional–global model pair, fail to reproduce this climate variability. Although including all possible NARCCAP model simulations to generate a multi-model ensemble mean would increase the statistical degree of confidence in climate projections, this type of result would not increase confidence in the physical climatology of model representations of warm season climate variability. More physically based, process-oriented metrics are needed to evaluate model quality in assessing the uncertainty of future climate change in multi-model ensemble products used for climate change impacts assessments. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116800
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; School of Natural Resources and the Environment/Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Carrillo C.M.,Castro C.L.,Garfin G.,et al. Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(11)