DOI: 10.1002/joc.5671
论文题名: Freezing degree-day thresholds and Lake ice-out dates: Understanding the role of El Niño conditions
作者: Beyene M.T. ; Jain S.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 11 起始页码: 4335
结束页码: 4344
语种: 英语
英文关键词: conditional risk
; El Niño flavours
; Lake ice-out dates
; North American lakes
; quantile regression
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Ecosystems
; Freezing
; Lakes
; Oceanography
; Risk perception
; Tropics
; Conditional quantiles
; Differential sensitivity
; Non-linear relationships
; North American
; Occurrence probability
; Quantile regression
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern oscillation
; Ice
; climate effect
; climatology
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; freezing
; ice cover
; ice lake
; regression analysis
; winter
英文摘要: In temperate lakes, the wintertime Accumulated Freezing Degree-Days (AFDD) modulate the thickness and phenology of winter ice-cover, which in turn influence lake ecosystem processes and functions across seasons. Empirical studies show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-winter AFDD relationship for North American regions depends on the location and amplitude of the winter ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) warming/cooling in the tropical Pacific (TP), and consequently changes in the magnitude and frequency of different ENSO patterns engender shifts and transitions in the North American lake ice regimes. For eight lakes located across North America, we found quasi-linear and non-linear relationships between winter AFDDs and spring lake ice-out dates, and in some cases, existence of thresholds above and below which regression slopes are materially different, thus illuminating differential sensitivities. Conditional quantile functions for winter AFDDs that incorporate ENSO indices as covariates were developed to estimate the relative risk of early/late lake ice-out events for these lakes. For seven of the eight lakes, the canonical Eastern Tropical El Niño pattern increases likelihood of low winter AFDDs (associated with early ice-out dates in these lakes) by 1.5–2.8 times to that of the climatology (1951–2010 average), while the typical Central Pacific El Niño pattern corresponds to a decrease or no significant change in the occurrence probability of early ice-out dates in these Lakes. These results demonstrate that the conditional winter AFDD estimated based on a comprehensive characterization of ENSO allow for delineation of distinct local-to-regional patterns of elevated risk of early ice out and short lake ice-cover season for North American region. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116808
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME, United States
Recommended Citation:
Beyene M.T.,Jain S.. Freezing degree-day thresholds and Lake ice-out dates: Understanding the role of El Niño conditions[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(11)