DOI: 10.1002/joc.5537
论文题名: High-resolution projections of evapotranspiration and water availability for Europe under climate change
作者: Dezsi Ş. ; Mîndrescu M. ; Petrea D. ; Rai P.K. ; Hamann A. ; Nistor M.-M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 10 起始页码: 3832
结束页码: 3841
语种: 英语
英文关键词: actual evapotranspiration
; climate change
; Europe
; high spatial resolution models
; potential evapotranspiration
; water availability
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Groundwater
; Information management
; Natural resources management
; Runoff
; Actual evapotranspiration
; Europe
; High spatial resolution
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Water availability
; Climate change
; climate change
; CMIP
; potential evapotranspiration
; prediction
; spatial resolution
; water availability
; Europe
英文摘要: Evapotranspiration plays an essential role in estimating water balance, runoff and effective precipitation. To determine historical and projected water availability for Europe, we contribute high-resolution (1 km) estimates of monthly and annual potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and actual evapotranspiration (AET0). In the ET0 calculation, the monthly and annual heat index I and annual α parameter were estimated following the Thornthwaite method, and AET0 was calculated using the Budyko approach. The variables were estimated for a climate normal period that largely precedes an anthropogenic warming signal (1961–1990), and for two CMIP5 multi-model future projections (2011–2040 and 2041–2070). We project widespread and relatively uniform ET0 increases of around 50–100 mm by the 2020s and 75–125 mm by the 2050s for most of Europe. These values imply important changes that may affect runoff and groundwater recharge. AET0 was identified as important driver of water availability with more regional variability. Spatial mapping of changes relative to the normal baseline imply that all except northern parts of Europe are vulnerable to water deficits, with pronounced decrease expected in southern Europe. We provide high-resolution maps and data as an important tool for future natural resources management and climate change mitigation planning. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116818
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Faculty of Geography, University of Babeş-Bolyai, Cluj-Napoca, Romania; Department of Geography, University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania; Department of Geography, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Department of Hydrogeology, Earthresearch Company, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Recommended Citation:
Dezsi Ş.,Mîndrescu M.,Petrea D.,et al. High-resolution projections of evapotranspiration and water availability for Europe under climate change[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(10)