DOI: 10.1002/joc.5540
论文题名: Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations in the Colorado River basin
作者: Gautam J. ; Mascaro G.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 10 起始页码: 3861
结束页码: 3877
语种: 英语
英文关键词: changing points
; Colorado River basin
; general circulation models
; historical climate simulations
; interannual variability
; seasonal variability
; trend
; water balance
Scopus关键词: Arid regions
; Climate change
; River basin projects
; Rivers
; Snow
; Watersheds
; Changing points
; Climate simulation
; Colorado River Basin
; General circulation model
; Interannual variability
; Seasonal variability
; Trend
; Water balance
; Climate models
; air temperature
; annual variation
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; hydrological cycle
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; trend analysis
; water budget
; Colorado Basin [North America]
; United States
英文摘要: The Colorado River basin (CRB) is the primary source of water in the southwestern United States. A key step to reduce the uncertainty of future streamflow projections in the CRB is to evaluate the performance of historical simulations of general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, this challenge is addressed by evaluating the ability of 19 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and four nested regional climate models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical properties of the hydrologic cycle and temperature in the CRB. To capture the transition from snow-dominated to semi-arid regions, analyses are conducted by spatially averaging the climate variables in four nested sub-basins. Most models overestimate the mean annual precipitation (P) and underestimate the mean annual temperature (T) at all locations (up to +140% and −4.9 °C, respectively). A group of models capture the mean annual run-off at all sub-basins with different strengths of the hydrological cycle, depending on the level of P overestimation. Another set of models overestimate the mean annual run-off, due to a weak cycle in the evaporation channel. An abrupt increase in the mean annual T of ~0.8 °C is detected at all locations around 1980 from the observed and most of the simulated time series. However, no statistically significant monotonic trends emerge for both P and T. All models simulate the seasonality of T quite well. The phasing of the seasonal cycle of P is reproduced fairly well in one of the upper, snow-dominated sub-basins. Model performances degrade in the larger sub-basins that include semi-arid areas, because several GCMs are not able to capture the effect of the North American monsoon. Finally, the relative performances of the climate models in reproducing the climatologies of P and T are quantified to support future impact studies in the basin. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116825
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gautam J.,Mascaro G.. Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations in the Colorado River basin[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(10)