DOI: 10.1002/joc.5520
论文题名: Projected shift of Köppen–Geiger zones in the central Europe: A first insight into the implications for ecosystems and the society
作者: Skalák P. ; Farda A. ; Zahradníček P. ; Trnka M. ; Hlásny T. ; Štěpánek P.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 9 起始页码: 3595
结束页码: 3606
语种: 英语
英文关键词: central Europe
; climate change
; climate impacts
; Köppen–Geiger climate classification
; regional climate models
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Arable land
; Central Europe
; Climate impacts
; Colder climate
; Emission scenario
; High resolution
; Mediterranean climates
; Regional climate models
; Climate change
; arable land
; climate change
; climate classification
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; crop production
; ecosystem structure
; humid environment
; regional climate
; twenty first century
; yield response
; Central Europe
英文摘要: We examined a future change of Köppen–Geiger climate classification zones in central Europe in the 21st century using the high-resolution (10 km) bias-corrected simulations of two regional climate models following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Temperate oceanic climate (Cfb) will remain the dominant climate type in central Europe but it will extent into higher altitudes and replace boreal or colder climate types that will practically vanish by the end of the 21st century. There is a risk of large-scale expansion of humid subtropical (Cfa) climate in lower altitudes where 20–50% of population lives nowadays. In the end of the century the majority of arable land and permanent crops areas will be in the Cfa zone. A growing occurrence of Cfa-like or Mediterranean climate-like (Csa) years will reach up to 50% at some locations where 1.4 million people live today. Almost all agriculturally important areas and two thirds of the current population will be exposed to the occurrence of Cfa- and Csa-like years at least once in 10 years which may result into a lower production of rain-fed crops as it was the case of of Cfa- and Csa-like years of 2000, 2012 and 2015. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116832
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Global Change Research Institute AS CR, Brno, Czech Republic; Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Praha, Czech Republic; Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Praha, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Skalák P.,Farda A.,Zahradníček P.,et al. Projected shift of Köppen–Geiger zones in the central Europe: A first insight into the implications for ecosystems and the society[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(9)