| DOI: | 10.1002/joc.5519
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| 论文题名: | A counterexample to decomposing climate shifts and trends by weather types |
| 作者: | Bürger G.
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| 刊名: | International Journal of Climatology
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| ISSN: | 8998418
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 38, 期:9 | | 起始页码: | 3732
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| 结束页码: | 3735
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | analysis
; climate
; statistical methods
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| Scopus关键词: | Climatology
; Earth atmosphere
; Statistical methods
; Analysis
; Climate
; Climate shifts
; Product of sums
; Product rule
; Sum of products
; Weather types
; Decomposition
; climate change
; statistical analysis
; trend analysis
; weather
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| 英文摘要: | The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116843
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bürger G.. A counterexample to decomposing climate shifts and trends by weather types[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(9)
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