DOI: 10.1002/joc.5500
论文题名: Detecting and adjusting artificial biases of long-term temperature records in Israel
作者: Yosef Y. ; Aguilar E. ; Alpert P.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 8 起始页码: 3273
结束页码: 3289
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; East Mediterranean
; homogenization
; Israel
; temperature
; trend analysis
Scopus关键词: Factor analysis
; Homogenization method
; Temperature
; East Mediterranean
; Homogenized dataset
; Israel
; Maximum temperature
; Mediterranean climates
; Meteorological station
; Minimum temperatures
; Trend analysis
; Climate change
; climate change
; detection method
; homogeneity
; long-term change
; temperature profile
; temporal variation
; trend analysis
; Israel
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: Climate trends analyses are studied through the analysis of long-term records which usually are compromised by artificial non-climatic factors (e.g., station relocation, instrumental replacements, etc). The impact of these factors on the analysis must be assessed and corrected in a procedure called “Homogenization,” before computing any trends. An unbiased analysis is essential for the East Mediterranean climate change, which suffers from scarcity of long and reliable datasets. Here, for the first time, we address these problems by jointly applying some of the state-of-the-art homogenization methods, to long-term Israeli temperature records (TX and TN) at five different meteorological stations throughout the period of 1950–2011. All of the studied time series were found to be inhomogeneous, where instrumentational issues were responsible for almost 50% of the breaks. The most frequent adjustments range between [−0.6, +0.6] oC while some larger adjustments do not fall within the range of the [−1, +1] °C interval. The adjustment of these breaks is crucial because they introduce large errors that may lead to wrong conclusions about the estimated trends. The difference in the seasonal and annual trends between raw and homogenized series was analysed applying the Mann–Kendall test. The general annual trend differences before and after homogenization, fell within the range of [−0.12, 0.16] oC/decade. Based on the homogenized dataset, a highly significant positive trend was found for the annual (Formula presented.) with 0.15 °C/decade (p =.002) whereas the (Formula presented.) trend was 0.10 °C/decade (p =.051). In general, the maximum temperature trends are lower and less statistically significant than those for minimum temperature. The most pronounced seasonal trends were recorded for the summer, which was characterized by significant positive trends for (Formula presented.) (0.15 °C/decade) and (Formula presented.) (0.23 °C/decade), while the winter had mainly no significant positive trends. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116855
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Geosciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; Israel Meteorological Service, Bet-Dagan, Israel; Center for Climate Change (C3), Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Yosef Y.,Aguilar E.,Alpert P.. Detecting and adjusting artificial biases of long-term temperature records in Israel[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(8)