DOI: 10.1002/joc.5486
论文题名: Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods
作者: Zhang X. ; Yan X.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 8 起始页码: 3432
结束页码: 3438
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian model averaging
; boundary preservation criterion
; multi-model ensemble
; multiple linear regression
; order preservation criterion
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Linear regression
; Mean square error
; Singular value decomposition
; Bayesian model averaging
; Boundary preservation criterion
; Multi-model ensemble
; Multiple linear regressions
; Order preservation
; Climate change
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; regression analysis
英文摘要: Multi-model ensemble (MME) methods have been developed to improve upon the simulations of individual general circulation models. Their performances can be evaluated using metrics such as correlation and root-mean-square error, between the simulations and observations. However, most metrics change with the length of the calibration period, meaning the skill of MME methods in simulating future climate change is poorly known. In the present work, an order preservation criterion and a boundary preservation criterion are proposed to guarantee the reliability of MME simulations in the future. The order preservation criterion makes every model contribute a positive value to the MME simulations, while the boundary preservation criterion restricts the range of variation in the MME simulations. Four commonly used MME methods are evaluated based on these two criteria. The results show that the multiple linear regression method and singular value decomposition method are unsuitable MME methods in most situations. However, the arithmetic ensemble mean and Bayesian model averaging can be used to combine model simulations. The two criteria proposed in this study provide a simple way to evaluate the validity of MME methods. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116862
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: College of Forestry, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang X.,Yan X.. Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(8)