DOI: 10.1002/joc.5499
论文题名: Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling
作者: Malinovic-Milicevic S. ; Vyklyuk Y. ; Radovanovic M.M. ; Petrovic M.D.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 8 起始页码: 3264
结束页码: 3272
语种: 英语
英文关键词: clearness index
; erythemal UV radiation
; global solar radiation
; neural network model
; reconstruction
Scopus关键词: Clouds
; Erbium alloys
; Image reconstruction
; Solar radiation
; Ultraviolet radiation
; Atmospheric factors
; Backpropagation learning
; Clearness indices
; Erythemal UV radiation
; Global solar radiation
; Neural network model
; Neural network modelling
; Parallel calculation
; Backpropagation
; artificial neural network
; back propagation
; numerical model
; reconstruction
; solar radiation
; ultraviolet radiation
; Novi Sad
; Serbia
英文摘要: In this article, we proposed a simple neural network (NN) technique for estimating erythemal ultraviolet (UV) radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) using available input parameters. The technique implies the use of one of two models depending on the availability of the input parameter: (a) NN model 1 (NNM1) which uses global solar radiation, clearness index, cloudiness and air mass; and (b) NN model 2 (NNM2) which adds total ozone content (TOC) to the NNM1 inputs. The three feed-forward NNs with different internal structures and back propagation learning method for each NN model were used in modelling. The parallel calculation was used for learning each NN. The results showed that the NNM1 provides satisfactory estimate (R = 0.975, MBE = −0.614%, MAPE = 12.580%, RMSE = 17.716%) and that additional use of TOC NNM2 considerably improves the results (R = 0.982, MBE = −0.726%, MAPE = 10.161%, RMSE = 14.509%). The performances of developed NNMs become significantly better if warm part of the year is isolated (MAPE = 10.981 and 8.958; RMSE = 13.889 and 11.709, for NNM1 and NNM2, respectively). Variations of reconstructed annual averages of daily doses in the period 1949–2012 indicate ability of the technique to model the relationship between erythemal UV radiation and the affecting atmospheric factors. The analysis showed that the increasing trend during the warm part of the year in the period 1981–1996 was mainly caused by TOC, while the increase after 1996 was to a greater extent caused by cloudiness. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116863
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: ACIMSI – University Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modelling, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia; Department of Computer System and Technologies, Bukovinian University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine; Physical Geography Department, Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade, Serbia; Social Geography Department, Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade, Serbia; Department of Tourism and Socio-Cultural Services, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
Malinovic-Milicevic S.,Vyklyuk Y.,Radovanovic M.M.,et al. Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(8)