DOI: 10.1002/joc.5473
论文题名: Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China
作者: Xu C. ; Wu W. ; Ge Q.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 7 起始页码: 2922
结束页码: 2939
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; impact assessment
; ORYZA v3 model
; rice yield
; the Sichuan Basin of China
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Fertilizers
; Agricultural management
; Climate change impact
; General circulation model
; Impact assessments
; Physiological mechanisms
; Rice yield
; Sichuan Basin
; Spikelet fertilities
; Climate change
; assessment method
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; environmental factor
; paddy field
; rice
; China
; Sichuan Basin
英文摘要: Understanding how different climate factors interact and impact rice yield is essential for effective agricultural management strategies and policies. However, the potential impacts are less clear at the regional scale. In this work, we used the latest version of the ORYZA crop model to evaluate the impacts of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin of China based on high-quality agricultural experimental, meteorological and soil data and the incorporation of future climate data generated by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three newly released representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Considering climate change alone, our modelling results indicated a continuing rice reduction for most stations by 2–17, 4–28 and 1–43% under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively; when considering the CO2 fertilizer effect, rice yields increased by 3–10, 4–13 and 5–20% under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, for most stations, the CO2 fertilizer effect could not completely offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. In addition, temperature and radiation were the main climate factors that cause yield variation by affecting the rice maturity periods (DAE), spikelet fertility factor (SPFERT) and spikelet number (NSP). The uncertainty arising from the climate models was less than 10% under the RCP2.6 scenario, 15% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 20% under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating good consistency in rice yield simulations. These findings offer insight into the physiological mechanisms and the degree of climate change impacts on rice yields, thus informing appropriate adaptive strategies for rice planting in the Sichuan Basin, China. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116881
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Xu C.,Wu W.,Ge Q.. Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(7)