DOI: 10.1002/joc.5477
论文题名: Impacts of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the Qilian Mountains of China: Historical trends and projected changes
作者: Lin P. ; He Z. ; Du J. ; Chen L. ; Zhu X. ; Li J.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 7 起始页码: 2980
结束页码: 2993
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; evaporation paradox
; RCP scenarios
; reference evapotranspiration
; statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: Evaporation
; Evapotranspiration
; Landforms
; Wind
; Evaporation paradoxes
; Global climate changes
; Meteorological station
; RCP scenarios
; Reference evapotranspiration
; Spatio-temporal changes
; Spatiotemporal characteristics
; Statistical downscaling
; Climate change
; air temperature
; alpine environment
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate effect
; evapotranspiration
; greenhouse gas
; trend analysis
; China
; Qilian Mountains
英文摘要: Global climate change is likely to affect reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and the use of water resources for vegetation management. Our goals were to identify spatio-temporal characteristics of ET0 and factors controlling the change in ET0 and to project spatio-temporal changes in the Qilian Mountains of China under the future climate conditions. Changes in ET0 were estimated by the Penman–Monteith method for 22 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2015. We quantified the attributions of climatic factors with the differentiation equation method. Then, we assessed the spatio-temporal changes in projected ET0 with CanESM2 model outputs and statistical downscaling model for three representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for years 2016–2100. We found that annual ET0 averaged across the region was 1001.5 mm, with an insignificant decrease of −0.43 mm/year during 1960–2015. The lowest values were present in the alpine region in the central area, while the highest ET0 was detected in the western region. An annual and seasonal “evaporation paradox” existed in the Qilian Mountains during the past few decades. Mean daily air temperature measured (Tmean) and wind speed (U2) were the dominant factors in ET0 change. However, the decreasing trend in ET0 may be due to a diminished effect of Tmean triggered by short-wave radiation (Rs), actual vapour pressure (ea), and wind speed (U2), but especially by the substantial reduction in U2 at most stations. Compared with the baseline, ET0 is likely to increase by 6.31–7.20, 6.11–10.41, and 6.58–17.66%, respectively, under RCP scenarios of 2.6 (very low forcing scenario), 4.5 (medium stabilization scenario), and 8.5 (very high emission scenario), but RCP2.6 ET0 rates level off and even decline after 2050 while RCP4.5 rates climb only marginally after 2050. Thus, ET0 projected with the CanESM2 model displayed an upwards trend in the Qilian Mountains, especially the central alpine region. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116888
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Linze Inland River Basin Research Station, Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology of Inland River Basin, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Lin P.,He Z.,Du J.,et al. Impacts of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the Qilian Mountains of China: Historical trends and projected changes[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(7)