DOI: 10.1002/joc.5456
论文题名: An extreme climate transition in the Caribbean's Virgin Islands. I. Evidence of teleconnection with the 1976/1977 Pacific climate shift
作者: Orange N.B. ; Chesny D.L. ; Primack A.G. ; Gendre B. ; Maina S.N. ; Giblin T.W. ; Morris D.C.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 6 起始页码: 2730
结束页码: 2742
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Caribbean
; climate change
; climate extreme
; climatic shift
; daily precipitation
; daily temperature
; trends
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Uncertainty analysis
; Caribbean
; Climate extremes
; Climatic shifts
; Daily precipitations
; Daily temperatures
; Trends
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate variation
; extreme event
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; teleconnection
; trend analysis
; Caribbean Islands
; Leeward Islands [Lesser Antilles]
; Virgin Islands
英文摘要: We present the Caribbean's Virgin Islands’ climate variability over the last 60 years from indices of extreme temperature and precipitation, as well as their quantitative support for a recent climatic shift (1983.2 ± 5.5 years). The region's climate indices (defined via time series averages) and trends (defined via linear least squares regression fitting) of extreme temperature and precipitation were cross-examined from 1952, 1961, 1978, and 1983–2014 to diagnose: the area's climatic extremes; a climatic transition's role in assessing decadal climate anomaly rates; and to provide an analytically independent test of the transition's existence. Analyses relied on the use of varying physical constraints to include weighting from statistical and non-statistical uncertainties in our climatic outcomes. We report that diurnal warming and enhanced precipitation accompanied each interval, however, non-negligible deviations existed in comparisons between the same anomalies in any 2 intervals. Our Virgin Islands’ long (1952, 1961–2014) versus short (1978, 1983–2014) climate variation comparisons provide evidence for the manifestation of decadal (or longer) shifts, and thus, biases, in recent Caribbean reports. Our climatic transition's overlap with the renowned 1976/1977 Pacific event insinuates a local Caribbean teleconnection, and contributes to the evidence growing globally for 1980s’ shifts in an abundance of feedback measures of Earth's energy budget. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116903
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: OrangeWave Innovative Science, LLC, Berkeley, SC, United States; Etelman Observatory, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands (U.S.); School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States; College of Science and Mathematics, University of the Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands (U.S.); Department of Physics, United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Orange N.B.,Chesny D.L.,Primack A.G.,et al. An extreme climate transition in the Caribbean's Virgin Islands. I. Evidence of teleconnection with the 1976/1977 Pacific climate shift[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(6)