DOI: 10.1002/joc.5466
论文题名: Impact of regional climate model projected changes on rice yield over southern India
作者: Samiappan S. ; Hariharasubramanian A. ; Venkataraman P. ; Jan H. ; Narasimhan B.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 6 起始页码: 2838
结束页码: 2851
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change impact
; northeast monsoon
; regional climate model
; rice yield projection
; southern India
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Electric power system interconnection
; Rain
; Regression analysis
; Climate change impact
; Northeast monsoon
; Regional climate modeling
; Rice yield
; Southern India
; Climate models
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; crop yield
; monsoon
; rainfall
; regional climate
; rice
; India
; Tamil Nadu
英文摘要: This study addresses the impact of projected changes to northeast monsoon on rice yield during rabi season (September–December) in Tamil Nadu by using a three-step approach. First, coarse-resolution global climate models that realistically capture the mean monsoon characteristics were selected. Second, lateral and boundary conditions taken from selected global models’ projections are employed to run a high-resolution regional climate model. Third, climate variables from regional model being fed into panel data regression model. For different scenarios and for mid and end of century projections, in conjunction with projected rainfall, a comprehensive assessment is carried out to underscore the sensitivities of maximum and minimum temperatures under different stages of rice production, viz. vegetative, reproductive and maturity phases, and to the concept of growing degree days (GDD, cumulative heat effect). Irrespective of scenarios, in response to an increase in projected monsoon rainfall and surface temperature conditions, the regression model estimates an increase of rice yield of about 10–12% by mid-century and 5–33% by the end of the century. In the regression model, the baseline coefficients were estimated from observed rainfall and temperature available from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The projected changes in rice yield, however, remain unchanged for baseline coefficients estimated from regional climate model outputs (forced by reanalysis products) rainfall and temperature. The robust results obtained here provide confidence to the findings. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116905
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai‘i, Honolulu, HI, United States; Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Jeju, South Korea; Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
Recommended Citation:
Samiappan S.,Hariharasubramanian A.,Venkataraman P.,et al. Impact of regional climate model projected changes on rice yield over southern India[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(6)