DOI: 10.1002/joc.5448
论文题名: The seasons’ length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean
作者: Hochman A. ; Harpaz T. ; Saaroni H. ; Alpert P.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 6 起始页码: 2627
结束页码: 2637
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; Cyprus Low
; Persian Trough
; Red Sea Trough
; season definition
; Sharav Low
; synoptic classification
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Health hazards
; Health risks
; Water pollution
; Water resources
; CMIP5
; Cyprus Low
; Persians
; Red sea
; Season definition
; Sharav Low
; Synoptic classification
; Climate change
; annual cycle
; climate change
; CMIP
; ensemble forecasting
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; synoptic meteorology
; twenty first century
; Arabian Sea
; Indian Ocean
; Mediterranean Sea
; Mediterranean Sea (East)
; Persian Gulf
; Red Sea [Indian Ocean]
英文摘要: The eastern Mediterranean (EM) is expected to be influenced by climate changes that will significantly affect ecosystems, human health and socio-economic aspects. One aspect of climate change in this vulnerable area is the length of the seasons, especially that of the rainy winter season against the warm and dry summer. Here, the synoptic seasons’ definition of Alpert, Osetinsky, Ziv, and Shafir (2004a) was applied to an ensemble of eight Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, to predict the changes in the lengths of EM seasons during the 21st century. It is shown that the ensemble adequately represents the annual cycle of the main synoptic systems over the EM. The analysis further suggests that at the end of the 21st century, the duration of the synoptic summer, characterized by the occurrence of the Persian Trough, is expected to be lengthened by 49%, while the synoptic winter, characterized by the occurrence of the Cyprus Low, is expected to be shortened by 56% under the RCP8.5 scenario. This may lead to substantial changes in the hydrological regime and water resources, reduce the potential of dry farming, increase the risk of fires and air pollution and change the timing of seasonal health hazards. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116910
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geophysics, School of Geosciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel; Department of Geography and the Human Environment, School of Geosciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel; Porter School of Environmental Studies, School of Geosciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
Recommended Citation:
Hochman A.,Harpaz T.,Saaroni H.,et al. The seasons’ length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(6)