globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5348
论文题名:
Connecting ENSO-related climatic variations with a long-term crop supply data to enhance agro-meteorological capability of Tongan stakeholders
作者: Lee E.-J.; Kim M.; Kim K.-H.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38
起始页码: e18
结束页码: e27
语种: 英语
英文关键词: crop data ; ENSO variability ; statistical analysis ; tercile-category probability estimation
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Commerce ; Crops ; Cultivation ; Decision making ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Statistical methods ; Wetlands ; Agricultural impacts ; Climatic variability ; ENSO variability ; Information transfers ; Less developed countries ; Probability estimation ; Southern oscillation ; Statistical significance ; Climatology ; climate change ; climate variation ; crop plant ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; estimation method ; probability ; stakeholder ; statistical analysis ; China ; Fujian ; Tongan ; Xiamen ; Cyrtosperma chamissonis
英文摘要: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability affects crop production via its influence on climatic variability in many regions of the world. Recent studies show that the frequency and variation in ENSO cycles are influenced by a changing climate, indicating that more sophisticated studies on the agricultural impacts of ENSO are needed. In many less developed countries, however, securing agricultural data as well as climate data for the analysis is extremely difficult due to limited data availability. In this study, monthly historical precipitation data in Tonga were examined to establish an ENSO relationship with long-term crop data. Local market supply data, the only extant long-term crop data, were used as a proxy for crop supply and analysed to find any significant variations in agricultural output linked to ENSO impacts. Among several crops with statistical significance, swamp taro was selected for an in-depth statistical analysis using monthly market supply and monthly climate data. As a result, a statistically significant relationship was found between rainfall amount in critical growth stages and corresponding swamp taro supplies in the market. Based on the results, we suggest a practically applicable information transfer to Tongan farmers using a tercile-category probability estimation of the crop supply based on seasonal ENSO forecasts. Different counter-decisions based on the information are expected from various stakeholders based on their experience and priority and also depending on their decision-making position in the society. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116930
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作者单位: APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Lee E.-J.,Kim M.,Kim K.-H.. Connecting ENSO-related climatic variations with a long-term crop supply data to enhance agro-meteorological capability of Tongan stakeholders[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38
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